CIS 375 SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

University Of Michigan-Dearborn

Dr. Bruce Maxim, Instructor

Risks Analysis:

  1. Risk identification.
  2. Risk projection (impact of risks/likelihood of risk actually happening).
  3. Risk assessment (the change if it happens).
  4. Risk management.

Kinds Of Risk:

Risk Projection (or estimation):

Risk Planner:
    1. Establish a scale indicating perceived likelihood.
    2. Determine consequences.
    3. Estimate impact on project (for each risk).
    4. Note overall accuracy of risk projection (to avoid misunderstanding).

Date: 9/24/97

Week 3

Sample Impact Assessment Table:

CATEGORY \ COMPONENTS

PERFORMANCE

SUPPORT

COST

SCHEDULE

1

Failure to meet would result in mission failure

Failure results in increased costs and schedule delays with expected values in excess of $500K

CATASTROPHIC

 

2

Significant degradation to nonachievement of technical performance

Nonresponsive or unsupportable software

Significant, financial shortages, budget overrun likely

Unachievable delivery date

1

Failure to meet the requirement would degrade system performance to a point where mission success is questionable

Failure results in operational delays and/or increased costs with expected value of $100K to $500k

CRITICAL

 

2

Some reduction in technical performance

Minor delays in software modifications

Some shortage of financial resources, possible overruns

Possible slippage in delivery date

1

Failure to meet the requirement would result in degradation of secondary mission

Costs, impacts, and/or recoverable schedule slips with expected value of $1K to $100K

MARGINAL

2

Minimal to small reduction in technical performance

Responsive software support

Sufficient financial resources

Realistic, achievable schedule
 

1

Failure to meet the requirement would create inconvenience or nonoperational impact

Error results in minor cost and/or schedule impact with expected value of less than $1K

NEGLIGIBLE

2

No reduction in technical performance

Easily supportable software

Possible budget underrun

Early achievable date

 

Risk Projection:
    1. List all risks listed in column one.
    2. Categorizes risks by type:

      3. {business, project, etc.}

    3. Probability value (guess).
    4. Impact.
    5. Sort table based on impact and probability.

Risk Assessment:

    1. Define referent levels.

      2. {break even points - cost/schedule)

    2. Develop relationships between each reference factor.
    3. Determine region of termination, bounded by uncertainty curve.
    4. Try to predict compound combinations of risks - affecting referent level.

Risk Management (monitoring):

(No way to avoid risk)
    1. Determine causes of job turnover.
    2. Eliminate causes before project starts.
    3. After project starts, assume turnover is going to occur and ensure continuity.
    4. Make sure teams are organized and distribute information widely.
    5. Define documentation standards and be sure documents are produced in a timely manner.
    6. Conduct peer review of all work.
    7. Define backup staff.

Customer Questions

  1. Do you understand my needs?
  2. Can you design a system to meet my needs?
  3. How long will it take?
  4. How much will it cost?